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Posts
67
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Joined
December 17, 2004
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Last visited
October 12, 2018
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I’d recommend researching Martingale betting before investing too heavily on this strategy if you haven’t done so already.
Getting banned by bookmakers is very much dependant upon which bookmaker you’re betting with. I’ve been banned from Coral for winning small stakes bets (just £1) on correct score set betting (Serena Williams) and Torquay to win (and they did so in injury time). The 1st thing that’s likely to happen is that you’ll get an email letting you know that „you’re no longer eligible for our offers“ (which won’t stop them constantly emailing you with offers). At this point, you’ll know your days are numbered. -
Re: Systematic Selections :: SEASON OVER :: 489 Selections :: +20.71pts :: 4.24% Yiel
Removed nonsense post – apologies for the repeated mistakes and ruining your thread! -
Re: Systematic Selections :: SEASON OVER :: 489 Selections :: +20.71pts :: 4.24% Yiel
Removed nonsense post -
Re: Systematic Selections :: SEASON OVER :: 489 Selections :: +20.71pts :: 4.24% Yiel
Removed nonsense post -
Re: SOTDOC Johnny Grossman’s early goal strategy
It might be worth seeing if the pre-match over/under 2.5 goals odds vary in the data you’re looking at too. Over the years, they’ve meddled with the balls so that they move more, etc. which could explain the higher number of goals in the more recent seasons. -
Re: Systematic Selections :: SEASON OVER :: 489 Selections :: +20.71pts :: 4.24% Yiel
Hi Matthew,
Well done on another successful season. Since your model’s creating a predicted (percentage) outcome, have you tried a different staking method (i.e. Kelly Criterion) to see if you can maximise your profits? I’d be interested how you’d have performed, starting back in 2000 with a full, half and quarter kelly staking strategy if this is something you can calculate easily? -
Re: Sample size and age of data
The way I’ve got around a team’s monopoly is to incluude the bookies odds into my analysis (and therefore digging out the value. So whereas Man U would’ve been odds-on in most games, against the bigger clubs they’re not any more. By combining the bookies odds with my own strength ratings is where I can find „sweet spots“ in the betting. What’s (unsurprisingly) obvoius is that the bookies are extremely good at setting their odds!!!
My concern is that I’ve „engineered“ the sweet spots. If taking out the margin of error calculated above compensates for that, then I’m onto a good thing! -
Re: Sample size and age of data
Thanks for asking this question Paparazzo as I was about to ask exactly the same one!
I’m getting my data from the same place and am using my own method for assessing a team’s strength. In some scenarios, I am seeing a strong yield (over 30%) running my data back to 2001 but this is from a limited number of bets (100 – 200).
Using the formula above, my margin of error’s between 7% and 10% – does this mean that to check whether I’m on to something, I should turn 10% of my wins into losses and see if the numbers still stack up? -
Re: Southampton v Reading > Sat 8th December
As a Reading fan, this is certainly a winnable game. The fact that Southampton will have a go at us will suit us nicely. They did exactly the same thing last season, having over 20 shots to our 4. We won 3-1.
However, we’ve done just about enough in every game to lose by one goal. Our decent performance against Man U (a game we never expected to get anything from) would have been nice against Villa (a game we could have got something from). For whatever reason, we play just badly enough to lose.
I’d avoid this one but if you do have a nibble, both teams to score would be my bet. -
Re: 10pts system for horses
Not even that a lot of the time especially if the team’s expected to win. Expect nearer 6-7’s I’d have thought. -
Re: is there anything like this?
What I think he means is that if the bet wins, you pay him. If it loses, you don’t pay him. But if it loses, you’ve lost what you bet so you lose. -
Re: Arbing Q & A’s
Good luck to you but like most here, I think arbing’s a dodgy business. I (like yourself have a degree in maths and love gambling) recently looked at backing with bookies and laying with betfair for a guaranteed profit (after commission). All was going well until one match in Greece was postponed… by 1 day.
My bets with some bookies got refunded yet my lay with betfair stood. I absolutely shat my pants as I’d layed an odds on favourite. After getting in touch with betfair, they reopened the book and I backed for a small guaranteed loss. Though it was much better than the loss I was anticipating. Since then, I’ve decided to avoid such systems cos it would really hurt to get stung in this way again.
(Happy ending though – one of the bookies which cancelled the backing bet paid out the next day despite the bet being declared void so I did actually make a huge unexpected profit but the lesson was learnt all the same!)
Hope this makes sense. Good luck to you though. It can be done but I personally think it’s pretty scary stuff.
Oh, also had an instance where a bookie suspended all betting after the event was on my coupon at which point they dramatically shortened the odds. A lay was in place (a much better one thank God).
There are safer strategies (which hopefully nobody else will ever figure out as it’ll ruin it for me!) but as I say, good luck! -
Re: Simple System
Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 101.45 Number of bets: 9 Winning bets: 6 Losing bets: 3 Strike rate: 67% Yield: 16% Profit/Loss: +1.45 -
Re: Simple System
Let’s hope there’s some long-term profit in this and it’s not just a lucky start!
15th March West Ham v. Crewe – 1.79 -
Re: Simple System
At the end of the first weekend we have the following:
Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 102.45 Total staked: 8 Number of bets: 8 Winning bets: 6 Losing bets: 2 Strike rate: 75% Yield: 30.63% Profit/Loss: +2.45
